Bayesian spatial data analysis: Application of pneumonia spread in west java

Muhammad Yusuf Al Habsy, Fulkan Kafilah Al Husein, Muhammad Harun Yahya, Ro'fah Nur Rachmawati

Abstract


Pneumonia has a notable influence on public health, especially among susceptible demographics like children and the elderly. This respiratory disease can be transmitted through human interaction. Analyzing the spread of the illness within a community requires assessing the characteristics of the community itself. The objective of this research is to describe the distribution of pneumonia cases and their causes in the West Java Province using RStudio software. The analytical method employed is the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) approach, a Bayesian statistical method used for estimation in complex Bayesian models, particularly in hierarchical or nested structure. The sample utilized comprises the entire population, totaling 27 Districts/Cities within West Java Province. The influence of differences in population size, number of people living in poverty, waste production, the quantity of primary healthcare facilities, total number of vehicles, and the count of HIV patients in Cities/Regencies in West Java on the spread of pneumonia will be analyzed. The result of analysis show that the population and number of health centers variables had a significant influence on the mapping of pneumonia disease in each location. And also, the Relative Risk (RR) and Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR) maps show that some regions have a higher risk of pneumonia compared to other regions. These findings are expected to provide insights for public policies in addressing health issues, particularly in the efforts to prevent and control diseases like pneumonia. Moreover, these results serve as a foundation for further studies regarding other factors that might contribute to the spread of this disease at the local level.


Keywords


Besag York Mollie; Desease Mapping; INLA; Latent Gaussian; Spatial Statistics.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24042/djm.v7i1.23154

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